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《績後》一文綜合大行對比亞迪(01211.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
比亞迪(01211.HK)公布首季業績後,市場憧憬海外銷售增加提升盈利率及業績見底,今早(29日)高開近0.7%後,盤中曾高見108.6元一度彈高4.7%,最新報106.9元走高3.2%。花旗指,比亞迪首季純利41億元人民幣符合該行預期,但低於市場普遍預期的50億元人民幣,主要源於20億元人民幣匯兌損失,去年同期錄滙兌收益約19億元人民幣。該行預期市場焦點將...
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《績後》一文綜合大行對比亞迪(01211.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
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49
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24
 
 

比亞迪(01211.HK)  +4.600 (+4.436%)    Short selling $1.90B; Ratio 38.638%   公布首季業績後,市場憧憬海外銷售增加提升盈利率及業績見底,今早(29日)高開近0.7%後,盤中曾高見108.6元一度彈高4.7%,最新報106.9元走高3.2%。花旗指,比亞迪首季純利41億元人民幣符合該行預期,但低於市場普遍預期的50億元人民幣,主要源於20億元人民幣匯兌損失,去年同期錄滙兌收益約19億元人民幣。該行預期市場焦點將轉向5月初的訂單及交付量,以及與吉利(00175.HK)  +0.560 (+2.571%)    Short selling $492.08M; Ratio 20.952%   首季業績比較。從正面角度看,比亞迪首季收入按年跌16%,但電動車毛利率仍穩定於23.4%。捌除匯兌損失,估算首季本土每車核心純利穩定於751元人民幣。假設相關條件持續至第二季,在資本開支及研發強度不變下,若第二季銷量達112萬輛,核心純利上限可達113億元人民幣。若不計營運槓桿,核心純利則為74億元人民幣。該行維持對比亞迪「買入」評級,以及目標價142元。

公司公布第一季營業收入按年跌12%至1,502.25億人民幣,純利按年跌55%至40.85億元人民幣,每股收益44.8分人民幣。扣除非經常性損益的純利按年跌49%至41.48億元人民幣。季內開發支出按年升39%至82.85億元人民幣,主要是內部研發投入增加。匯兌損失產生財務費用21億元人民幣,資產減值損失下降44.4%至3.94億元人民幣。經營活動產生現金流量淨額按年跌68%至27.9億元人民幣。

【關注新車及二代刀片電池車銷售】

美銀證券估算,比亞迪首季每車純利約5,800元人民幣,按年跌34%及按季跌14%,受銷量規模下降影響,但部分被出口及高端品牌銷售佔比上升所抵銷。展望全年,預期每車純利平穩,受惠高端車型及海外銷售佔比提升,以及成本控制。該行因應首季業績,下調今明兩年收入及盈利預測各約1%,目標價由120元降至119元,維持「買入」評級,預期公司今年將提升更多電動車型規格及性能,並擴大出口以支持需求。該行指比亞迪首季銷售70萬輛車輛按年跌30%,出口銷售32.11萬輛按年升56%,料比亞迪首季出口車輛佔升至45.9%(對比2025年第四季26%),並指高端品牌業務(騰勢及方程豹)佔比達12%。該行料比亞迪今年經調整每車純利約6,359元人民幣,按年跌25%(按季跌2%)。

摩根士丹利料比亞迪(01211.HK)  +4.600 (+4.436%)    Short selling $1.90B; Ratio 38.638%   首季應為盈利低谷,未來復甦軌跡取決於海外市場拓展及下半年新車型量產,包括「大唐」、「海獅08」、「漢EV」及「方程豹鈦7」等。市場亦將關注搭載第二代刀片電池及5分鐘閃充技術的10萬至15萬元人民幣新車型的訂單及市場反饋。此外,5月份的科技日將聚焦智能駕駛升級,對比亞迪及其供應鏈均具重要意義。該行給予比亞迪「增持」評級,目標價126元。

富瑞報告指,比亞迪首季純利低於該行預期22%。雖然平均售價受出口佔比上升帶動,按年升20%至16萬元人民幣,但每車純利跌至5,800元人民幣,按季跌14%。該行認為,比亞迪首季業績全面遜預期,毛利率按年跌1.3個百分點至18.8%,反映原材料成本上升及經營槓桿減弱。比亞迪電子(00285.HK)  +0.360 (+1.372%)    Short selling $182.67M; Ratio 31.413%   首季純利按年跌95.5%,成為額外拖累。該行下調比亞迪今明兩年盈利預測,主要反映本土銷售利潤率下降及匯兌影響擴大。但認為公司作為新能源汽車出口先行者,仍處於有利位置,可受惠全球電動化趨勢。該行維持比亞迪目標價105元及「持有」評級。

------------------------------------------------

本網最新綜合9間券商對其投資評級及目標價,1間券商下調目標價,7間給予「買入」、「增持」或「跑贏大市」相若投資評級。

券商│投資評級│目標價
花旗│買入│142元
高盛│買入│134元
里昂│高度確信跑贏大市│130元
野村│買入│127元
摩根士丹利│增持│126元
招銀國際│買入│125元
美銀證券│買入│120元->119元
富瑞│持有│105元
法國巴黎銀行│跑輸大市│87元

券商│觀點
花旗│季績符該行預期,預計第二季淨利潤扣除匯兌影響下最多113億元人民幣
高盛│首季經營溢利遠超預期
里昂│季度盈利及盈利率受本土市場影響,由出口抵銷
野村│強勁海外銷售抒緩本地銷售呆滯
摩根士丹利│有利海外產品組合支撐平均售價與毛利率趨勢,抵銷本土利潤疲軟困境
招銀國際│海外及研發支撐季度盈利堅韌性
美銀證券│季績稍遜預期,受比亞迪電子盈利率拖累,每車淨利潤按季跌14%
富瑞│季績遜預期,轉折點在望
法國巴黎銀行│季績因匯兌損失遜預期,預期本土業務不確定性

(fc/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-29 16:25.)

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