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<Research>G Sachs Puts off Fed Rate Cuts to Dec 2026, Mar 2027; Recession Odds Cut to 25%
Goldman Sachs postponed the final two projected Federal Reserve rate cuts by one quarter each to December 2026 and March 2027, while keeping its terminal rate forecast unchanged at...
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<Research>G Sachs Puts off Fed Rate Cuts to Dec 2026, Mar 2027; Recession Odds Cut to 25%
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Goldman Sachs postponed the final two projected Federal Reserve rate cuts by one quarter each to December 2026 and March 2027, while keeping its terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3-3.25%.

The broker forecast the pass-through of energy costs to keep full-year core PCE inflation growth closer to 3% YoY rather than 2%. This implies that the FOMC would need to see lower monthly inflation readings and further cooling in the labor market before cutting rates.

Besides, as recent economic activity data have remained resilient since the spike in oil prices began, the broker lowered the probability of a US recession over the next 12 months by 5 ppts to 25%.
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