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UBS: CN Trade May Further Weaken in Future; USD/ CNY May Reach 7.4 by Yr-end
While the US-China trade situation is easing, the decline in the basket of consumer goods exports widened in May, Wang Tao, Head of Asia Economic Research and Chief China Economist...
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UBS: CN Trade May Further Weaken in Future; USD/ CNY May Reach 7.4 by Yr-end
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While the US-China trade situation is easing, the decline in the basket of consumer goods exports widened in May, Wang Tao, Head of Asia Economic Research and Chief China Economist at UBS, said.

The annual growth rate of auto exports rose to a historical high, while the YoY decline in imports beat expectations. It is expected that, after seasonal adjustments, the import trends of copper ore and iron ore improved, indicating that domestic demand remains generally stable despite external tariff risks.

Overall exports weakened in May, Wang added. If tariffs remain at current levels, China's "acceleration of exports" to the US may become more evident in June. However, as other export economies' "acceleration of exports" to the US may gradually normalize in the coming months, the outlook for trade growth is more cautious, and trade is expected to weaken significantly in the coming months.

William Deng, Senior Asia and China Economist at UBS Investment Bank, expected the USD/ CNY to be around 7.4 by the end of this year, fluctuating between 7 and 7.4 throughout the year. In the near term, it may be in a stronger range, and it is believed that capital outflow pressure may slightly ease with the recent strengthening USD/ CNY.
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